Predictors of drinking patterns in adolescence: a latent class analysis.

BACKGROUND Uni-dimensional measures of alcohol consumption may be unable to fully capture the complexity of adolescent drinking and experience of alcohol-related harms. Latent class analysis provides an empirical method to understand different adolescent drinking patterns. METHODS Latent class analysis was used to create typologies of drinking among the 5018 current drinkers in the national Youth '07 survey. Determinants of drinking patterns were identified using multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS Four latent classes were identified, demonstrating an overall increase in risk of alcohol-related outcomes from increasing consumption. One class strongly deviated from this pattern, having moderate consumption patterns but disproportionately high levels of alcohol-related problems. Multinomial logistic regression found that the strongest predictors of belonging to high-risk drinking typologies were having a positive attitude to regular alcohol use, buying own alcohol, peers using alcohol, and obtaining alcohol from friends and/or other adults. Other significant predictors included being male, having a strong connection to friends, having parents with a low level of knowledge of their daily activities and poor connection to school. Class membership also varied by ethnicity. CONCLUSION The latent class approach demonstrated variability in alcohol-related harms across groups of students with different drinking patterns. Longitudinal studies are necessary to determine the causes of this variability in order to inform the development of targeted policy and preventative interventions. Legislative controls, such as increasing the legal purchase age and reducing the commercial availability of alcohol, will continue to be important strategies for reducing harm in young people.